Suggest you manufacture another entry in the Cron file which you can spot exactly that it has run or not.
The output of cron jobs is emailed to admin, correct? I get email with the output of other cron jobs, when they generate output; this one would have generated output, but did not result in an email.
Cron commands are logged in /var/log/cron when run, correct? There are lots of entries in /var/log/cron, but nothing at the time called for by this entry.
Finally, there's the matter that the desired outcome of the cron entry (i.e., my TLS certificate being renewed) did not happen--but that could be due to an error in the script or any number of other issues (which is why I'm trying to test it).
Am I correctly understanding you to be questioning whether the command actually ran? If so, wouldn't at least the first two paragraphs above be definitive that it didn't? Or is one of the assumptions in those two paragraphs incorrect?
But for the sake of testing, I changed the entry to
0 14 11 * * root /opt/letsencrypt-renew.sh
...and it ran. I saw it come up in /var/log/cron, and I got an email with the result of the script. So, either */2 isn't working properly, or it isn't doing what I think it should be doing (to wit, running in the months divisible by two--Feb, Apr, Jun, etc.). I expect the latter is the more likely.
The answers at
http://serverfault.com/questions/129633/how-to-run-cron-job-every-3-months-in-apache2 do suggest that I'm understanding the */2 expression incorrectly (as Stefano suggested, but I believed to be incorrect), and suggest that */2 for the month would result in running in Jan, Mar, May, etc. Seems a little unintuitive to me, but if that's the way it works that isn't too hard to plan for.